Tourism slows economic growth
Despite improving economic forecasts for Portugal, Brussels admits that countries more dependent on tourism will take longer to recover. Analysts contacted by SOL are not surprised.
The European Commission's forecasts are, after all, more encouraging. Instead of a 9.8% drop in the economy this year as he had forecast in July, he now says that the contraction will be 9.3%. Even so, these figures are worse than those forecast by Banco de Portugal (8.1% decrease) and by the Government (-8.5%), being in line with the forecasts of the Public Finance Council (-9.3 %), but being more optimistic than those of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (-9.4%) and the International Monetary Fund (-10%).
But these are improvements that do not convince analysts contacted by SOL. The Infinox analyst recalls that "the forecasts did not have a new state of emergency with mandatory teleworking. This teleworking will make our economy contract even more due to the marginal decrease in consumption », says Pedro Amorim.
Deficit worsens, unemployment improves
The European Commission got worst however, the forecasts for the Portuguese deficit and public debt for 2020, expecting a budget balance of -7.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) - as forecast by the Government - and a public debt 135.1% of GDP. Regarding the forecasts for the Portuguese unemployment rate, it expects it to stand at 8% this year, after forecasting 9.7% in May.
For more information go to: https://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/714442/turismo-trava-crescimento-da-economia