Exports to increase 8,7% in 2021 and 7,9% in 2022


Meanwhile, import is up 5,6% this year as well, after falling 12% in 2020.

The government expects that Portuguese exports will increase by 8,7% in 2021 and 7,9% in 2022, due to world recovery and tourism, according to the Stability Programme (PE).

According to the document, which was approved on Thursday and posted on the website of the Portuguese Parliament shortly after midnight, "exports are expected to rise 8,7 percent in 2021 and 7,9 percent in the following year, recovering from the 18,6 percent drop in 2020, reflecting not only the increase in overall external demand, but also the recovery of tourism.

The Government thus expects there to be "a positive evolution of the epidemiological situation and the effects associated with the vaccination process" against covid-19.

"For later years, exports are projected to slow to 4.6 per cent growth by the end of the projection period [2025] and import growth stabilises around 5,5 per cent per year," the document prepared by the Ministry of Finance says.

Imports also increase by 5,6 per cent this year, after falling by 12 per cent in 2020, growing by 6 per cent in 2022 and 2023, 5,6 per cent in 2024 and 5,4 per cent in 2025.

Another item that the Government expects to see increased is investment, as the "gradual improvement in the confidence of economic agents and the implementation of the reforms provided for in the Recovery and Resilience Programme sustain the expected acceleration of investment in 2022 and 2023 (8.0% and 8.6%, respectively)".

In 2021, investment still stands at 4%, and in 2024 and 2025 it will be 6,3% and 5,7%, respectively.

Public consumption "should also increase in 2021 and 2022, (1,7% and 1,4%, respectively), and then decelerate until 2025 (1%)," according to the executive's figures.

Private consumption will be 2,8% of GDP in 2021 and will accelerate to 4.9% next year, then slowing to 2,2% in 2021 and 2,1% in 2024 and 2025, according to Government estimates.

For this year, the biggest contribution to 4% GDP growth will come from "domestic demand (2.9 percentage points), and to a lesser extent from net external demand (1.1 percentage points)".

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