Advanced indicators already show economic breakdown in January


The short-term indicators developed by the OECD and Banco de Portugal for the pandemic crisis show a further breakdown of the Portuguese economy in January because of confinement.

With the confinement that took off in January, the country's economic activity will fall again, but economists anticipate that the drop will be less than last year's confinement. Although the final value is only known in May when the GDP for the first quarter is revealed, it is already possible to have a first measurement of the shock of restrictions in the Portuguese economy in early 2021 using the new more reactive indicators that were developed to measure the pulse to the pandemic crisis.

Confinement causes "marked deterioration" of the economy

This is the case with the indicators of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Banco de Portugal. In the case of the OECD weekly tracker (see graph below), the level of economic activity in Portugal fell in January (around -13%), close to the level recorded in June but still far from the worst records in April 2020 ( between -20 to -30%). The most curious aspect of the Organization's chart is a possible inversion of the curve, showing an increase in the last few days, but it is necessary to remember that these indicators are very sensitive.